EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK

The ECR scores are scaled from 0 to 100 (100= no risk, 0= maximum risk). The scores are not designed to correspond to any other rating systems but many users do ask for a comparative guide, particularly to credit ratings. ECR tiers its countries in 5 Tiers. Below is the description of how countries in those tiers can be characterized with a rough guide to an equivalent credit rating band.

ECR – Tier 1 A score between 80 & 100 (can be equated to a credit rating of AA and above)

Economic Characteristics

The economy is sound, stable and well developed. None of the major indicators of economic health show cause for alarm, even though some of these may be moving on a downward trend. The major areas of economic infrastructure (banking sector, currency etc.) function well for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment are typically not a cause for concern. Government finances are typically in a strong position and the system for financing government is strong and well developed.

Political Characteristics

The political system is stable, although there may be impending changes in the administrative government; these changes are not anticipated to change the nature of political governance in the country. The role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is transparent and understood.

Structural Characteristics

The structural components of the country are strong and typically enjoying very high standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks. Education and healthcare levels are high and the demographics of the country are not seen as a major impediment to economic and political stability.

Access to Capital & Credit Ratings

The sovereign and its related entities enjoy very strong access to capital that is available in the market and private sector entities are not hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are headquartered.

Debt Indicators

The debt indicators of these countries are typically very robust although they may be moving in a negative direction.

ECR Tier 2- A score between 65 & 79.9 (can be equated with a credit rating of A- to AA). Typically countries exhibit characteristics that are similar to Tier 1 but one of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:

Economic Characteristics

The economy is sound and stable and usually well developed, although some of the major indicators of economic health show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are robust but may not be functioning optimally for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment often show signs of weakness. Towards the lower end of this tier countries may also exhibit signs of being over reliant on a narrow set of economic sectors such as natural resource extraction, financial services, public sector etc. Government finances may be in a materially weak state.

Political Characteristics

The political system is stable and but in some countries changes in the administration may cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the country. Often in Tier 2 countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors can lack transparency and may not be easily understood with state institutions sometimes lacking independence. Corruption can also be a drag on the political risk score.

Structural Characteristics

The structural components of the country can show weakness in one of its major aspects. Whilst enjoying very high standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks its education and healthcare levels or demographics may be poor and vice versa. These will feed into long term political risks and limit economic potential.

Access to Capital & Credit Ratings

For higher ranked Tier 2 countries the sovereign and its related entities enjoy good access to capital that is available in the market. Private sector entities are not overly hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are headquartered but they will often be limited in the amounts that they can raise at competitive rates.

Debt Indicators

The debt indicators of these countries are typically robust in the long term but may require fiscal adjustment in the short to medium term.

ECR Tier 3- A score between 50 & 64.9 (can be equated with a credit rating of BB+ to A-). Typically countries exhibit characteristics that are similar to Tier 2 but one (towards the top of the tier), two or three (towards the bottom of the tier) of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:

Economic Characteristics

The economy is typically stable though may be underdeveloped, major indicators of economic health show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure may be deficient and may not be functioning optimally for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment can show signs of persistent weakness. Government finances may be in a materially weak state. This tier also often contains countries that are experiencing sharp economic contraction.

Political Characteristics

The political system is usually stable but its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the administrative often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the country. Usually in Tier 3 countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors lacks transparency with state institutions usually lacking independence from the administrative government. Corruption is almost certain to be a drag on political risk.

Structural Characteristics

The structural components of the country are often weak in one of its major aspects. Whilst enjoying very high standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks its education and healthcare levels or demographics may be poor and vice versa. These will feed into long term political risks and limit economic potential.

Access to Capital & Credit Ratings

For higher ranked Tier3 countries the sovereign and its related entities enjoy sufficient access to capital that is available in the market but will often have to pay significant spreads to achieve funding needs. For lower ranked Tier 3 countries access to significant amounts of capital; may be difficult. Private sector entities are hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are headquartered both in terms of amounts of capital and rates that they will need to pay.

Debt Indicators

The debt indicators of these countries are typically poor and countries often utilize capital controls that make indicators hard to equate with those of other countries.

ECR Tier 4- A score between 36 & 49.9 (can be equated with a credit rating of B- to BB+).
Data for these countries is difficult to find and typically countries exhibit characteristics where at least two of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:

Economic Characteristics

The economy is often unstable and underdeveloped, multiple major indicators of economic health show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are deficient and will not be functioning adequately for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment will show structural weakness. Government finances are usually in a materially weak state. Countries in this Tier have often experienced a credit event and are undergoing or have recently undergone debt rescheduling/ default programs. Many countries in Tier 4 may be highly reliant on remittances from overseas based national and foreign aid programs for a significant portion of their income

Political Characteristics

The political system is usually unstable, its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the administrative government will often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the country. Countries in Tier 4 will have often undergone a major political change through non-electoral means in near term past. Usually in Tier 4 countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is highly opaque and the role of the state in the economy is often large. State institutions usually lack independence from the administrative government and rule of law is severely impaired. Corruption is almost certain to be a drag significant drag on political risk.

Structural Characteristics

The structural components of the country are often weak in at least two of its major aspects. The country will have poor standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks. Its education and healthcare levels will often be very poor. However the demographics may still be relatively strong although these countries often suffer from a “Brain Drain” effect.

Access to Capital & Credit Ratings

For Tier 4 countries accessing the capital markets is difficult. It is usally only open to the sovereign and its related entities but at a significant price. Private sector entities are severely hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are headquartered.

Debt Indicators

The debt indicators of these countries are typically poor and countries often utilize capital controls that make indicators hard to equate with those of other countries.

ECR Tier 5 - A score between 0 & 35.9 (can be equated with a credit rating of D to B-. Data for these countries and territories is very difficult to find and collate. Many countries in Tier 5 may be highly reliant on remittances from overseas based national and foreign aid programs for a significant portion of their income. Countries exhibit characteristics where at least two of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:

Economic Characteristics

The economy is highly underdeveloped and unstable, multiple major indicators of economic health show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are deficient and will not be functioning adequately for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment will show structural weakness. Government finances are usually in a materially weak state. Countries in this Tier have often experienced a credit event and are undergoing or have recently undergone debt rescheduling/ default programs. Tier 5 countries will often have high reliance on remittances and foreign aid programs for income.

Political Characteristics

The political system is usually unstable, its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the administrative government will often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the country. Countries in Tier 5 will have often undergone a major political change through non-electoral means in the near term past. In Tier 5 countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is highly opaque and the role of the state in the economy is often large. State institutions usually lack independence from the administrative government and rule of law is severely impaired. Corruption is almost certain to be a significant drag on political risk.

Structural Characteristics

The structural components of the country are often weak in all major aspects. The country will have poor standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks. Its education and healthcare levels will often be very poor. However the demographics may still be relatively strong although these countries often suffer from a "Brain Drain" effect.

Access to Capital & Credit Ratings

For Tier 4 countries accessing the capital markets is difficult. In most cases the country cannot access the capital markets.

Debt Indicators

The debt indicators of these countries are typically very poor if there is any data at all. Many countries will have no track record of borrowing from overseas commercial sources.

No, data from Euromoney Country Risk will no longer be published in Euromoney Magazine and www.euromoney.com. The only source for this is now www.euromoneycountryrisk.com

Euromoney is not offering its own opinion of country risk. Instead, we provide a forum which aggregates the opinions of a global network of economists and policy analysts. We believe that this consensus of expert opinion is unique in the field of country risk.

The ECR score is comprised of the following components:

All qualitative expert scores are updated at least once a quarter. In the quantitative section, access to capital markets is updated bi-annually, credit ratings are updated quarterly and debt indicators are updated annually.

Yes, we provide a full copy of the survey methodology. You can access this at the bottom of any page on the website:

ECR experts work for a variety of institutions in both the commercial and non-commercial sectors.
Most ECR experts work in one of the following areas:

• Commercial/ investment banking
• Asset management
• Development banks & multilateral agencies
• Specialist economic & political research consultancies
• Ratings agencies
• Major corporations
• Universities/academic institutions/think tanks

Individual opinion.The basic premise behind ECR is that we believe that qualitative expert opinion is of value. As such, we encourage our experts to take an individual, rather than institution view.

No. Experts are given free access to the system so long as they score at least once a quarter.

In the scoring interface, experts are provided with a definition of each variable they are scoring and a scaling guide:

In addition, if a particular score seems unusual, we contact the expert to make sure he or she understands the methodology

If an expert submits a country score which is 2.5 percentage points above or below average, the score is halted in ECR’s internal administrative system. The score and the individual scorer are then reviewed. If we are still unsure as to whether the score is valid, the scorer is contacted by phone or email. The score is then either approved or rejected.

There are two places where you can do this: the country risk ranking page where you can export the full rankings of 186 countries:

You can also download a breakdown of the political, economic and structural risk scores from the individual home page of a country:

No, only the expert in question can see their own scores. ECR scores are collected in confidence and ECR endeavours to keep the scores of all experts confidential, only displaying the aggregated, consensus scores.

No. All scores are confidential and feed into the aggregate for a country.

To have your scores included in the aggregated ECR score, you must be recognised by Euromoney as an expert. This means that you must be engaged in one of the following occupations:

• Economic research at a financial institution
• Economic research at a university at a post-doctoral level
• Economic research at a consultancy/think tank/research institute
• Economic research at a major public sector institution
• Political risk analysis at a major public sector institution
• Political risk analysis at a specialist consultancy
• Political risk analysis at a consultancy/think tank/research institute

ECR Experts are analysts recruited by Euromoney to score countries for which they have expertise. Economists and policy analysts from the commercial, academic and non-governmental sectors can participate in the survey. Euromoney aims for a geographically diverse group of experts for any given country. The expert panel for each country can be viewed by clicking on the "Experts" tab (see below). A list of all the experts within the ECR system can be viewed under the "Members" header on the blue navigation bar.

To follow a country, go to ‘My Countries’ page (this can be selected by hovering the cursor over the "Countries" tab) and click "Add countries to follow". Select the countries you wish to follow and press   "Add selected".

Score changes, comments and new analysis for this country will now appear on the "My Updates" page and will be included in the email alerts you choose to receive.

No. Access to ECR means that you can follow and capture data on all 186 countries in our survey.

Yes, Euromoney has historical survey data from 1993 onwards which can be made available. Please contact:

No. However, we are currently developing a premium analytical tool where these features and many others will be available. This tool will be available by the end of Q2 2012. If you are interested in this service, please contact Andrew Mortimer at

As ECR is based on individual expert opinion, an institution can have any number of contributing experts.

We have various subscription packages available. For further details, please contact Andrew Mortimer:

or (+44 (0) 20 7779 8641)

The credit rating component of the ECR score is generated from the sovereign ratings of Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and FITCH IBCA. The rating is assigned a score value on the below scale. If a country receive different ratings from the agencies its scores are converted on the below scale and an average is taken. That number is then scaled to 10 to produce the credit rating score.

"Access to capital markets" measures the ability of a country to access international capital markets. The category looks particularly at a country’s ability to access capital markets, bilateral funding and bank finance.

The participants in this category of the survey are managers of syndicated loan desks at global commercial and investment banks. Each participant is asked to rate the ability of individual countries to access international capital markets on a scale of 0-10 (0=no access at all and 10=full access). These scores are averaged and then weighted to 10%. Participants only score those countries within their area of expertise. Countries which receive no responses are awarded a score of 0.

Posting analysis allows you to share research, news and blogs with other members. You can use the analysis page to update your personal blog posts, and post links to news stories, or to start discussions.

To post a blog, click the"All Analyses" tab at the top of the page. On the "All Analyses" page, click "Add an analysis":

Add a title to your blog using the "Analysis title" interface:

Select the countries you wish to tag to the article using the "Associate countries" bar. (Tagged articles will be visible on relevant country pages and to other members who follow those countries.)

Enter the names of colleagues in the"Collaborate with colleagues" bar to allow other members to edit article drafts.

Use the toolbar to format text and add charts

"Use the insert/edit image" button to add picture file

Image files can be sized and formatted using the "Insert/edit image" window:,

Members can message each other on ECR using their profiles.

To message another member, go to their profile page, and click "Send message".

In the "Send message "window, enter a subject and body text, then click "Send". Your message will be sent to the member's ECR inbox.

You can view messages sent to you by other members in your inbox. To access your own inbox, go to your profile page and click the "Inbox" button:

Members can share original research with other members by uploading pdf files to their profile page.

To upload a pdf, go to your Profile Page and click "My uploads".

Then click "Upload" to open the "Upload file" window.

Use the "Select folder" menu to choose where to upload pdfs.

Select the file in the "Upload file"menu.

Select the countries you wish to tag to the file with the "Associate countries" bar. Tagged files will be visible on the relevant country pages, and will appear in the updates feed of members who follow those countries.

Add a title, an introduction and any keywords that relate to the article. When you have finished, click "Ok".

You can create folders to store research articles by region, topic, or author. To create a file, click the "New folder" button. Choose a folder name, and select where the folder will be created, then click "Ok".

Click "settings" at the top of any page. Then click "change password":

Changing your email notification settings allows you to choose how you are kept informed about new events in ECR.

To change your email notifications, click the "Settings"button at the top of any page.

Within the "Settings" menu, click "Notification".

Use the tick boxes to select how often and for which types of activity you wish to receive email alerts.

ECR includes a country wiki page for each country in the world. The wiki pages provide a range of economic data, national account figures and information about political systems in each country. The wikis are designed to act as a data bank to assist members in their research. They can be viewed by clicking the country wiki tab on any page in the site(http://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/Wiki/Countries)

ECR members are encouraged to edit, expand and make additions to the wikis for any country they follow, with information which may benefit other members.

To make changes to a wiki page press the "Edit" button at the top of the any section of the page.

Enter any amendments you wish to make, using the toolbar to format text and enter charts or tables. When you are finished, click "Save".

Changes will be moderated by the editorial team before being published.