Euromoney Country Risk

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK

Read the latest analysis on sovereign, geo-political and structural risk

 
Get up to date country risk ratings in 186 countries

Member login



Lost your password?

Euromoney Country Risk

Euromoney Country Risk
List of countries.

Poland Poland

Overview Change score Analyses Experts
 
Sponsored section
Poland

Table of Content


EconomicPoliticalStructural

Poland – Quick View
ECR score70.99 (Mar 2011)
ECR rank31 (Mar 2011)
Economic
GDP (Q2 2010)USD 109.29 billion
GNI per capita PPP (2010)USD 17,803
FDI inflow (2009)USD 13,792.36 million
Inflation (Nov. 2010)2.5%
Central bank assets (2009)USD 78,749.44 million
Unemployment rate (Q3 2010)11.5%
Government deficit (2009)USD 31,406.58 million
Tax revenue (2008)USD 98,154.71 million
Political
Government typeDemocratic
Recent political crisisNA
Economic freedom score (2011)68th
Freedom of information score (2010)32nd
Corruption perception index (2010)41st
Structural
Birth rate (mid-2010)10.9 per ‘000
Population balance (2010)Under 14 - 15.12%
Population balance (2010)Above 65 - 13.55%
Life expectancy years (2009)Male - 71.53 years
Life expectancy years (2009)Female - 80.05 years
Mortality rate (mid-2010)9.8 per ‘000
Literacy rate (2008)99.8%
Internet access (2009)13.5%

[Top] Economic Overview

Total population

 

Sri Lanka’s total population for 2009 stood at 20.45 million, increasing 1.15% over 2008. In 2009, males accounted for 49.62% of the total population and 50.38% were females.

Sri Lanka Population by gender

(Source: Census and Statistics – Sri Lanka)

 

Gender balance

 

Gender ratio in 2009, was registered at 97 males per 100 females.

(Source: UN data)

 

In 2009, 60.50% of total population lies between 15 and 54 years, followed by 26.30% below 14 years and 13.20% in 54 years and above.

Population by Age

No. of People (million)

0-14

5,378

15-54

12,373

55+

2,699



 

(Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

Mortality rate

In 2009, the mortality rate was 5.9 deaths per 1000 people. While, the infant mortality rate was 13 deaths per 1000 births.

(Source: World Bank)

Birth rate

The birth rate in Sri Lanka stood at 18.4 births per 1,000 people. In 2008, the recorded average life expectancy was 78 years for females and 70 years for males.

(Source: World Bank )

Ethnic groups:

·         Sinhalese

·         Sri Lankan Moors

·         Indian Tamil

·         Sri Lankan Tamil

(Source: Sri Lanka Tourism)

 

Migration and urbanisation

 

The net migration rate was -1.4 per 1000 people in 2009, as compared to -2.1 per 1000 people in 2008.

(Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

 

15% of the population is urbanized, while 85% of the population lives in urban area.

(Source: WorldBank)

 

Human development index (HDI)

 

Sri Lanka is ranked 91st on the Human Development Index (HDI) 2010 Conducted by the United Nations. HDI provides a composite measure of three dimensions of human development: living a long and healthy life (measured by life expectancy), being educated (measured by adult literacy and gross enrolment in education) and having a decent standard of living (measured by purchasing power parity, PPP, income).

(Source: UNDP)

Poverty

In 2007, 15.2% of the total population was below poverty line.

Sri Lanka People below poverty line

(Source: Census and Statistics – Sri Lanka)

[Top] Financial Indicators & Government Financial

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

 

Consumer related prices in Poland remained stable during 2009 and 2010. As of December 2010, the CPI recorded was 103.1 a decrease from December 2009 CPI of 103.5

 

                                                      Poland Consumer Price Index

(Source: NBP)

 

Interest Rates

 

At the end of 2010, interest rate for household deposits was 4.1% and for household loans at 9.4%. Rates rose considerably in 2008 due to growing inflation.

 

(Source: NBPExcel file; NBPExcel file, Excel file)

 

Interest rates on loans and deposits (%)

Year

Deposits

Loans

Households*

Non-financial corporations

Households*

Non-financial corporations

2010

4.1

3.6

9.4

6.0

2009

4.8

3.8

9.9

5.9

2008

6.1

5.9

11.0

7.7

2007

3.5

4.3

9.5

6.5

2006

2.6

2.5

9.2

5.6

2005

2.8

2.7

10.3

6.3

2004

3.8

3.7

12.1

8.3

2003

2.9

2.9

12.1

7.2

2002

4.2

4.2

14.6

8.8

*also includes non-profit institutions serving households

 

(Source: NBP,NBP, NBP)

 

Monetary Stock

 

Poland classifies its monetary stocks in three parts – M1, M2 and M3, where

 

M1 includes:

  • Currency in circulation

  • Overnight deposits and other liabilities

M2 includes M1 and:

  • Deposits, blocked deposits and other liabilities with agreed maturity up to 2 years

  • Deposits redeemable at notice up to 3 months

M3 includes M2 and:

  • Repurchase agreements

  • Debt securities issued with maturity up to 2 years

  • Money market fund shares

(Source: NBP)

 

Aggregate Monetary Stock (PLN million)

Year

M1

M2

M3

2010

449,328.9

774,811.9

782,533.2

2009

388,344.9

714,757.8

720,232.5

2008

349,943.1

660,239.9

666,231.3

2007

335,266.2

549,344.3

561,623.8

2006

275,830.9

481,210.5

495,309.5

2005

220,639.0

415,163.5

427,125.4

2004

181,975.8

368,714.1

377,534.5

2003

163,158.9

342,860.2

345,144.8

2002

140,774.9

324,346.4

326,124.9

2001

119,567.9

329,469.1

329,704.7

(Source: NBP)

 

Currency in circulation

 

Total currency in circulation at end of 2010 was PLN 102.7 billion as compared to 2009 value of PLN 99.9 billion.

 

                                                    Poland Money Supply

(Source: NBP)

 

Stock market capitalisation

 

As of January 2011, 400 companies were registered with Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), of which 27 are foreign based companies. 34 companies were listed in 2010, whereas 13 got delisted.

 

In 2010, total stock market capitalisation was PLN 796,482 million. Following table shows market capitalisation of WSE during 2003-2010:

 

Stock market capitalisation (PLN million)

Year

Domestic companies

Foreign companies

2010

542,646

253,836

2009

421,178

294,643

2008

267,359

197,756

2007

509,887

570,370

2006

437,719

198,190

2005

308,418

116,482

2004

214,313

77,385

2003

140,001

27,715

(Source: WSE)

 

Official Exchange Rate

 

In 2010, exchange rate of PLN against one United States Dollar (USD) is PLN 3.02 and against one Euro (EUR) is PLN 3.99.

 

Official Exchange Rates (2001-2010)

Year

USD

EUR

2001

4.0939

3.6685

2002

4.0795

3.8557

2003

3.8889

4.3978

2004

3.6540

4.5340

2005

3.2348

4.0254

2006

3.1025

3.8951

2007

2.7667

3.7829

2008

2.4092

3.5166

2009

3.1162

4.3273

2010

3.0157

3.9946

(Source: NBP)

Government finances

 

Sovereign debt dynamics

 

Fiscal balance

 

In 2009, the general government deficit increased to PLN 97,321 million compared to PLN 46,849 million in 2008. The fiscal deficit in 2009 was 7.2% of the country’s GDP.

 

                                                                  Poland Fiscal Balance

(Source: CSO)

 

Total Revenue and Expenditure

 

In 2009, total Government revenue of the country was PLN 497,099 million, whereas total expenditure was reported PLN 550,623 million. Total revenue shows a marginal growth of 0.03% compared to 2008.

 

Government revenues and expenditures (PLN million)

Particulars

2009

2008

Revenue

497,099

496,968

Expenditure

550,623

512,023

Gross operating balance

-29,272

7,458

Net operating balance

-53,524

-15,055

(Source: CSO)

 

Tax Revenue

 

In 2008, Government revenue from taxes stood at PLN 233,469 million as compared to PLN 215,432 million in 2007.

 

(Source: World Bank)

 

Balance of Payments (BoP)

 

Current account balance improved in 2009 showing reduction in deficit from the past two years. Decrease in merchandise imports showed positive signs in BoP, whereas deficit on income elevated significantly. Capital account kept up its growth pace highlighting an increase of 55.16% over 2008.

 

Balance of Payments

Particulars

Q3 2010

Q2 2010

Q1 2010

2009

2008

2007

Current Account

-14,575

-7,489

-4,503

-28,872

-61,257

-55,434

Goods

-6,350

-4,339

-2,696

-13,353

-62,382

-46,601

Services

2,088

3,095

2,331

14,808

12,376

12,911

Income

-13,718

-12,945

-10,886

-51,210

-30,343

-45,215

Current transfers

3,405

6,700

6,748

20,883

19,092

23,471

Capital Account

5,219

4,264

5,049

22,097

14,241

12,783

Financial Account

50,845

26,240

36,968

109,884

91,198

106,199

Overall Balance

23,580

11,031

24,354

44,407

-9,898

35,158

(Source: NBP)

[Top] Labour Force and Employment Overview

Education/literacy rate

The literacy rate in Sri Lanka was 91.3% in the year 2008.

(Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

 

Educational resources

There are 10,205 schools in Sri Lanka, of which 9,410 are government, 98 are private and 697 are Pirivenas. Sri Lanka has 15 universities.

In 2009, the government of Sri Lanka spent LKR 100,506 million on education, which is 2.08% of the total GDP.

(Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

 

Healthcare resources

In 2009, the total number of hospitals was 555, and there was 475 primary health care centres.

In 2009, Government expenditure on the healthcare sector was LKR 71,452 million, which accounted for 1.48% of the total GDP.

(Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

[Top] Political Stability

Poland is a democratic and sovereign nation. It has its own written constitution, originally in Polish. Political governance is divided into executive, legislative and judicial sections.

 

Executive powers are headed by President and Council of Ministers. The President exercises supreme powers over the nation and is elected for a term of 5 years. The President can be re-elected for one more such term. The Council of Ministers is comprised of several ministers and one Prime Minister, who heads the council. Other ministers are eligible to be elected as Deputy Prime Ministers, if needed. This council is required to look after implementation, supervision of statutory laws and other related duties.

 

Sejm and Senate have legislative powers of the country. Sejm comprises of 460 deputies who look after the activities of Council of Ministers. Senate is comprised of 100 members, known as senators. Deputies and senators are directly elected for a term of 4 years by way of secret ballot.

 

(Source: Poland.pl, Poland.pl, Poland.pl, Poland.pl)

 

Few of the political parties in Poland are –

  • Platforma Obywatelska
  • Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
  • Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
  • Unia Pracy
  • Socjaldemokracja Polska
  • Partija Demokratyczna
  •  Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
  • Samoobrona Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej
  •  Liga Polskich Rodzin

(Source: Parties-and-Elections)

 

Regulatory Environment

 

The country is ranked 68th in the 2011 Index of Economic Freedom. The economic freedom score of Poland is 64.1, a rise of 0.9 points from 2009. This rise was primarily due to increase in investment freedom, property rights and freedom from corruption.

 

(Source: Heritage.org)

 

                                          Poland Economic Freedom Indices

(Source: Heritage.org)

 

Corruption perception

 

The country is ranked 41st on the Corruption Perceptions Index 2010, with an index score of 5.3. The country’s ranking improved from 2008 when it was ranked 49th.

 

(Source: transperancy.org)

 

Freedom of information

 

Government provides freedom of information to every citizen of the country. In case of freedom to media, Poland is ranked 32nd on the Press Freedom Index 2010.

 

(Source: Poland.pl, Rsf.org)

 

Major national newspapers in Poland include:

  • Gazeta Wyborcza

     

  • Rzeczpospolita

     

  • Nasz Dziennk

     

  • Parkiet Online 

     

  • Przeglad Sportowy

     

  • Puls Biznesu

     

  • Super Express

     

  • Zycie

(Source: Poland.pl, Poland.pl)

 

Judicial system


The judicial system acts as an independent division of government. Its independence and powers are protected by the National Council. Members of this council comprises First President of the Supreme Court, Minister of Justice, President of Chief Administrative Court, a person appointed by the President, 15 judges of Supreme Court, 2 deputies and 2 senators.

 

Judicial system consists of 4 types of courts, namely:

  • Supreme Court

  • Common courts

  • Administrative courts

  • Military courts

 

The Supreme Court is the apex court for hearing all kind of matters. It is also responsible for supervising judgements of common courts and military courts. Common courts also hold power to resolve all subject matters under supervision of Supreme Court. The Chief Administrative Court and other courts look after issues related to public administration.

 

(Source: Poland.pl)

[Top] Demographic Overview

Literacy rate

The adult literacy rate of St. Lucia is estimated to be 94.8%.

(Source: UNDP)

Education resources

The expenditure on education in 2008 amounted to 6.3% of GDP. Education is compulsory in the country for children aged between 5 and 15.

The net enrolment in primary education was 91% for females and 92% for males. The enrolment in secondary education was 88% for females and 76% for males. The tertiary education registered a gross enrolment of 15%.

(Source:  estandardsforum.org)

Healthcare

Thetotal expenditure on healthcare in 2007 made up 6.3% of GDP.

In 2008, about 18 cases of tuberculosis diseases were registered, leading to a death rate of 0.94 per 100,000 people in the country. In 2004, the major causes of deaths in the country were cardiovascular diseases (30%) and cancer (20%).

There are two public hospitals and one private hospital in the country with 280 hospital beds per 100,000 people.

(Source: estandardsforum.org)

[Top] Soft Infrastructure

The government of St. Lucia is a constitutional monarchy, wherein Queen Elizabeth is the head of state. The Queen is represented by a Governor General. The prime minister is the head of the government.

(Source: commonwealth-of-nations.org)

The country’s parliament is bicameral and includes the Senate and the House of Assembly. The Senate has 11 members, appointed for a term of five years. Of the 11 members of the Senate, six are appointed by the advice of the prime minster, three on the advice of the leader of the opposition and two by the governor general. The House of Assembly has 18 members, directly elected for a term of five years.

(Source: IPU)

The major political parties in the country include:

  • United Workers Party (UWP)
  • Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP)
  •  National Alliance
  • Saint Lucia Freedom Party

(Source: caricom.org)

Regulatory environment

The country’s economic freedom score is 70.8, making it the 26th freest economy in the 2011 Index of Economic Freedom. St. Lucia ranks 2nd out of 29 countries in the South and Central America/Caribbean region.

St Lucia Economic Freedom Indices

(Source: Heritage.org)

Corruption perception

St. Lucia is not ranked in the Corruption Perception Index 2010. However, in the 2009 index, it was ranked 22nd with a score of 7, which indicates the perceived levels of corruption in the country is low.

(Source: transparency.org)

Freedom of information

The restriction on media in St. Lucia is limited. The media in the country are mainly private owned. In 2006, the parliament cancelled the media legislation, under which individuals were jailed for publishing false news.

The various newspapers in the country include:

  • The Voice
  • The Mirro
  • The Star
  • The Crusader
  • The Vanguar
  • One Caribbean

 (Source: BCC)

Judicial system

The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) is the supreme judicial organ in the Caribbean Community and the final court of appeal for the member states in the community.

The judicial system of the country is composed of a High Court and District courts. The cases are appealed in the Eastern Caribbean Court of Appeal and are reviewed in the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council in London.    

The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court (ECSC) is a superior judicial tribunal for the nine independent countries in the Eastern Caribbean.

(Source: eccourts.org, stepjournal.org, caribbeancourtofjustice.org)

[Top] Hard Infrastructure

The country’s total labour force in 2007 was 85,260, comprising 50.5% of the total population. Of the total labour force 72,780 were employed.

(Source: National Statistics)

Unemployment rate

St Lucia Unemployment rate 
(Source: National Statistics)

Unemployment in 2007 was recorded at 14.6%, as compared to 13.7% in the previous year.

In 2008, the participation rate of the male labour force was 78.2% and of female labour force it was 51.1%. In 2007, the total labour force participation rate was 75.9%.

(Source: UN)

Minimum wage

The minimum wage in the country for office clerks is XCD 300 per month, for shop assistants it is XCD 200 per month and for messengers it is XCD 160 per month.

(Source: state.gov)

Level of unionisation

The major trade unions in the country include:

  • National Workers Union - St. Lucia (NWU)
  • St. Lucia Seamen, Waterfront & General Workers' Trade Union (SWGWTU)

 (Source: ICFTU)

Euromoney country risk banner
 
All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws.
© 2012 Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.