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EconomicPoliticalStructural

Euromoney Country Risk editor’s view

The US is the world’s oldest federation.  The country operates under a constitutional republic. The current president is Barack Obama.  Citizens operate under three levels of government, federal, state, and local.  An ethnically diverse country, the US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world. Classified by the World Bank as a high-income country, it is also a member of the Organization for Co-operation and Economic Development (OCED), despite the country experiencing rising structural unemployment in recent years.  Over three quarters of the GDP comes from the services sector. Capital goods make up almost half of the country’s exports.  

United States – Quick View
ECR score82.1 (Mar 2011)
ECR rank15 (Mar 2011)
Economic
GDP (2010)USD 14,660 billion
GNI per capita PPPUSD 45,640
FDI inflow (2009)USD 2,672,786 million
Inflation (2009)-0.4%
Central bank assets (2010)USD 2,280,952 million
Unemployment rate (2010)9.8%
Government deficit (2009)USD 1,271.9 billion
Tax revenue (2009)USD 2,409.3 billion
Political
Government typeFederal Government, Civic
Recent political crisisNA
Economic freedom score8th
Freedom of information score20th
Corruption perception index22nd
Structural
Birth rate13.8 per ‘000
Population balanceUnder 14 – 20.2%
Population balanceOver 65 – 12.8%
Life expectancy yearsMales – 75.8 years
Life expectancy yearsFemales – 80.8 years
Mortality rate8.38 per ‘000
Literacy rate99%
Internet access77.3%

[Top] Economic Overview

The United States has the world’s largest economy, supported by a number of industries including retail, financial services, manufacturing, information technology, mining, construction, and agriculture.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

United States recorded GDP of USD 14,660 billion in 2010, increasing 3.83% from 2009. The country has evinced a GDP growth rate of 0.04% CAGR between 2001 and 2010. Additonally, per capita GDP increased from USD 47,274 in 2010, to USD 45,918 in 2009.

(Source: BEA)

United States GDP and GDP Growth Rate

(Source: BEA)

Gross national income (GNI)

In 2009, GNI accounted to USD 14,011 billion, declining 2.26% from 2008.

(Source: World Bank)

United States GNI

(Source: World Bank)

Income tax rate

Income tax rates vary from 10% to 35% for individuals, depending on the following six income bands:

 

Tax rate (%)

Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns, and Surviving Spouses

Heads of Household

Unmarried Individuals (other than Surviving Spouses and Heads of Household)

Married Individuals Filing Separate Returns

USD

10

Up to 16,750

Up to 11,950

Up to 8,375

Up to 8,375

15

16,751 – 68,000

11,951 – 45,550

8,376 – 34,000

8,376 – 34,000

25

68,001 – 137,300

45,551 – 117,650

34,001 – 82,400

34,001 – 68,650

28

137,301 – 209,250

117,651 – 190,550

82,401 – 171,850

68,651 – 104,625

33

209,251 – 373,650

190,551 – 373,650

171,851 – 373,650

104,626 – 186,825

35

Above 373,651

Above 373,651

Above 373,651

Above 186,826

(Source: irs.gov)

Corporate tax rate

In the US, the corporate tax rate is 35%. The rate has stayed at this level since 1993.


(Source: OECD)

Inflation rate

Inflation rate was recorded at -0.4% in 2009, decreasing 4.2% from the previous year. The highest ever inflation rate in United States was 18% in 1918.

United States Inflation Rate

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

Between 2007-2009, FDI inflows to the US increased significantly. At the end of 2009, the total investment outflows totaled USD 4,051,191 million, increasing 8.24% over 2008. Furthermore, total investment inflows were USD 2,672,786 million, also increasing 6.01% compared to 2008.


(Source: BEA)

United States Foreign Direct Investment

(Source: BEA)

Foreign portfolio investment (FPI)

In Q3 of 2010, net FPI indicated a loss of USD 25,839 million, declining negatively by 10.54% compared to Q3 of 2009.

(Source: Federal Reserve System)

United States Net Portfolio Investment

(Source: Federal Reserve System)

Central bank assets

As of February 2010, total assets of the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States) stood at USD 2,280,952 million. These assets mainly included agency mortgage-backed securities, which amounted to USD 1,025,541 million.

(Source: Federal Reserve System)

[Top] Financial Indicators & Government Financial

Consumer price index (CPI)

In 2009, the United States reported a composite CPI of 214.53, where used cars and trucks were the largest contributors.

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS News Release)

 

Month

CPI

2009

January

211.14

February

212.19

March

212.71

April

213.24

May

213.86

June

215.69

July

215.35

August

215.83

September

215.97

October

216.18

November

216.33

December

215.95

2010

January

216.69

February

216.74

March

217.63

April

218.01

May

218.18

June

217.97

July

218.01

August

218.31

September

218.44

October

218.71

November

218.80


(Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Producer price index (PPI)

In 2010, the average annual PPI for finished goods was 179.93 points, for intermediate materials it was 183.21 points and for crude materials it was 211.79 points.

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

 

Month-wise PPI (2009 and 2010)

Month

Finished goods

Intermediate materials

Crude materials

2009

January

171.2

172.1

171.2

February

170.9

170.7

160.7

March

169.6

168.4

159.7

April

170.6

168.6

163.5

May

170.6

169.4

168.7

June

173.7

171.3

175.9

July

171.6

170.4

170.1

August

174.1

173.3

177.8

September

173.3

173.3

173.9

October

173.6

174.0

186.1

November

176.2

176.0

193.9

December

177.1

177.3

197.1

2010

January

179.4

180.6

213.8

February

178.5

180.6

208.5

March

179.9

181.8

212.4

April

179.7

183.2

210.7

May

179.1

183.4

205.4

June

178.3

181.8

200.0

July

178.5

181.0

205.6

August

179.7

182.2

210.9

September

180.2

182.8

209.1

October

181.0

185.0

218.0

November

182.4

187.1

219.2

December

182.4

189.0

227.9

             

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Interest rates

During 2010, the average interest rate on certificates of deposit (CDs) in the secondary markets was 0.24% for 1 month maturity period, 0.31% for 3 months and 0.44% for 6 months.

(Source: Federal Reserve)

Average annual interest rates on CDs (%)

Year

Maturity period

1 month

3 months

6 months

2000

6.35

6.46

6.59

2001

3.84

3.71

3.66

2002

1.72

1.73

1.81

2003

1.15

1.15

1.17

2004

1.45

1.57

1.74

2005

3.34

3.51

3.73

2006

5.06

5.16

5.24

2007

5.23

5.27

5.23

2008

2.73

2.97

3.14

2009

0.30

0.55

0.87

2010

0.24

0.31

0.44


(Source: Federal Reserve)

Interest rates on loans to prime customers in 2010 was 3.25%, unchanged from the previous year.

United States Prime Interest Rates on Loans

(Source: Federal Reserve)

Money stock measures

The United States classifies its money stock into M1 and M2.

M1 includes:

  • Currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions
  • Traveler's checks of non-bank issuers
  • Demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding amounts held by depository institutions, U.S. government, foreign banks and official institutions)
  • Other checkable deposits
  • Credit union share draft accounts
  • Demand deposits at thrift institutions

M2 includes all items of M1 and:

  • Savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts)
  • Small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than USD 100,000)
  • Balances in retail money market mutual funds less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds.

(Source: Federal Reserve System)

 

Money Stock Measures (USD billions)

Month

M1

M2

2009

January

1583.5

8316.7

February

1574.0

8356.7

March

1577.4

8409.9

April

1608.5

8364.3

May

1608.5

8436.7

June

1646.2

8453.0

July

1649.9

8443.0

August

1648.4

8419.7

September

1660.8

8459.3

October

1676.2

8492.1

November

1687.5

8523.3

December

1696.6

8542.8

2010

January

1680.7

8486.0

February

1714.8

8545.7

March

1713.1

8519.9

April

1701.4

8490.6

May

1706.0

8573.0

June

1721.5

8604.6

July

1716.5

8603.3

August

1742.8

8649.4

September

1765.7

8709.0

October

1779.6

8767.0

November

1832.0

8804.

 

(Source: Federal Reserve System)

Official exchange rate

The average exchange rate for USD during the 2000 to 2009 period was 1.70 for sterling (GBP), 1.19 for euro and 0.70 for australian dollars (AUD).

Following are the average exchange rates (yearly) from 2000 to 2009:

 

Year

GBP

Euro

AUD

2000

1.52

0.92

0.58

2001

1.44

0.89

0.52

2002

1.50

0.94

0.54

2003

1.63

1.13

0.65

2004

1.83

1.24

0.73

2005

1.82

1.24

0.76

2006

1.84

1.26

0.75

2007

2.00

1.37

0.84

2008

1.85

1.47

0.85

2009

1.57

1.39

0.79


(Source: Federal Reserve System)

Government finances

Total revenue and expenditure

In 2009, total Government revenue stood at USD 3,726.9 billion, falling by 8.52% from 2008.  Furthermore, the total Government expenditures increased by 5.51% up to USD 4,998.8 billion.

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

United States Government Revenue and Expenditure

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Government Revenue Distribution (2009)

United States Government Revenue Distribution


(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Public sector borrowing requirement / fiscal balance

In 2009, the total fiscal balance accounted for a deficit of USD 1,271.9 billion. Furthermore, the account has reported continuous losses since 2002.

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Tax revenue

In 2009, total tax revenue was reported at USD 2,409.3 billion, which includes personal current taxes, taxes on production and imports, taxes on corporate income, and taxes from the rest of the world. Additonally, compared to 2008, it declined by 13.34%.

United States Contribution towards Tax Revenue

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Balance of payment (BoP)

 

Particulars

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

USD millions

Current Account

Exports of goods and services and income receipts

1,816,449

2,135,004

2,478,267

2,635,540

2,159,000

Exports of goods and services

1,281,186

1,452,783

1,648,665

1,839,012

1,570,797

Income receipts

909,016

1,035,868

1,160,366

1,304,896

1,068,499

Imports of goods and services and income payments

372,171

416,916

488,299

534,116

502,298

Imports of goods and services

12,164

15,678

17,216

14,936

17,096

Income payments

-462,905

-634,136

-730,049

-644,554

-466,783

Unilateral current transfers, net

-453,615

-624,646

-719,983

-634,190

-456,027

Capital Account

Capital account transactions, net

13,116

-1,788

384

6,010

-140

US-owned assets abroad, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial outflow (-))

-546,631

-1,285,729

-1,475,719

156,077

-140,465

Foreign-owned assets in the United States, excluding financial derivatives (increase/financial inflow (+))

-546,631

-1,285,729

-1,475,719

156,077

-140,465

Other foreign assets in the United States

14,096

2,374

-122

-4,848

-52,256

Balance on goods

0

0

0

0

0

Balance on services

4,511

-223

-154

-106

-48,230

Balance on goods and services

10,200

3,331

1,021

-3,473

-3,357

Balance on income

-615

-734

-989

-1,269

-669

Unilateral current transfers, net

5,539

5,346

-22,273

-529,615

541,342

Balance on current account

-2,255

-2,992

-2,475

-2,202

-4,06

 (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

[Top] Labour Force and Employment Overview

Labour force

The total labour force was 238.72 million in November 2010, increasing 0.19% from November 2009.

Employment status

Status

Nov

2009

July

2010

Aug

2010

Sep

2010

Oct

2010

Nov

2010

Civilian non-institutional population

236,743

237,890

238,099

238,322

238,530

238,715

Civilian labour force

153,720

153,560

154,110

154,158

153,904

154,007

Participation rate (in %)

64.9

64.6

64.7

64.7

64.5

64.5

Employed

138,381

138,960

139,250

139,391

139,061

138,888

Employment-population ratio (in %)

58.5

58.4

58.5

58.5

58.3

58.2

Unemployed

15,340

14,599

14,860

14,767

14,843

15,119

Unemployment rate (in %)

10

9.5

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.8

Not in labour force

83,022

84,330

83,989

84,164

84,626

84,708

People currently looking job

6,043

5,886

5,972

6,202

6,255

6,2

 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Wage structure

Effective from July 24, 2009, minimum wage for non-exempt employees is USD 7.25 per hour, as compared to USD 6.55 per hour in 2008.

Following are mean hourly wages on basis of type of occupation:

 

Occupation

Civilian workers

Private Industry workers

State & Local Government workers

Management, professional, and related

34.41

34.83

33.18

Service

13.40

11.51

19.83

Sales and office

17.49

17.49

17.53

Natural resources, construction, and maintenance

21.16

21.19

20.85

Production, transportation, and material moving

16.37

16.25

19.78

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Employment cost index (ECI)

As of September 2010, ECI for state & local government workers was 115.4, for civilian workers it was 112.8, and for private industry workers it was 112.1.

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Level of unionisation

In 2009, 12.3% of workers were unionized, decreasing slightly from 12.4% in 2008. The highest level of unionisation was seen at 38.1% in education and related industry.Furthermore, the state of New York recorded 25.2% unionisation, highest among all states.

Union membership was higher among male workers at 13.3%, in comparison to female workers at 11.3%.

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

[Top] Political Stability

The US is headed by a federal government, and follows a written constitution which dictates the legislative, executive and judicial branches.

Congress possesses the total legislative powers of the country, consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives, both of whom have its members elected by the people.

The senate is comprised of a total 100 members appointed for a term of 6 years. There are 2 members elected from every state. The House of Representatives is comprised of 435 members who act as representatives of their respective states.

To be a member of Senate, a person should be at least of 30 years old and be a citizen of United States for a minimum 8 years. Alternatively, for a member of the House of Representatives, the minimum mandatory age is 25 years and the candidate must be a citizen of the country for 7 years.

Standing house committees of the Congress administers are:

  • Agriculture
  • Appropriations
  • Armed Services
  • Budget
  • Education and Labor
  • Energy and Commerce
  • Financial Services
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Homeland Security
  • House Administratio
  • Judiciary
  • Natural Resources
  • Oversight and Government Reform
  • Science and Technology
  • Small Business
  • Standards of Official Conduct
  • Transportation and Infrastructure
  • Veterans' Affairs, and
  • Ways and Means

(Source: GPO Access)

Economic freedom

The US is ranked 8th at the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom, with a score of78.0 (out of 100), indicating a fall of 2.7 points from the previous year due to a decline in financial freedom, monetary freedom and property rights.

United States Economic Freedom Score

(Source: Heritage.org)

Corruption perception

The US is ranked 22nd on the World’s Corruption Perception Index 2010, scoring a 7.1 (out of 10).

(Source: transperancy.org)

Freedom of information

The US is ranked 20th on the Press Freedom Index 2010.

(Source: Rsf.org)

Judicial system

The judicial system of the country consists of the:

  • Supreme Court: comprised of a Chief Justice (present: John G. Roberts, Jr.) and eight Associate Justices, and is the supreme jurisdiction authority
  • Lower courts: shares a part of jurisdiction with Supreme Court. It is divided into 12 judicial courts at different geographical locations, each consisting of one circuit justice and supporting circuit judges
  • Special courts:comprised of the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces, the United States Tax Court, and the United States Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims, as well as other legislative courts. These courts are under the direct and independent regulation of Congress
  • Administrative office of courts: carries out administrative activities of the courts by maintaing the statistical data and is in charge of the allocation & distribution of funds for the entire judicial system
  • Federal Judicial Center:overlooks research and education for the judicial system.
  • United States Sentencing Commission: comprises of 7 voting members, who are appointed by the president. Under chairmanship of one of the voting members, this commission develops sentencing guidelines & policies and other related activities for the entire federal court system

(Source: GPO Access)

[Top] Demographic Overview

The United States is the 3rd largest populated country in the world, with an estimated population of 310,232,863 as of July 2010, and an average annual growth rate of 0.97%.

The female population accounts for 50.78% of the total population.


(Source: CIA)

United States Population by Gender

The net migration rate for 2010 stood at 4.25 migrants per 1,000 people.

Around 82% of people reside in urban areas, growing at a rate of 1.3% from 2005 to 2010.

(Source: CIA)

Ethnic environment

 

United States Distribution of Ethnic Environment

(Source: CIA)

The following table reflects a classification of people according to their religion:

 

Religion

% of population

Protestant

51.3

Roman Catholic

23.9

Mormon

1.7

Other Christian

1.6

Jewish

1.7

Buddhist

0.7

Muslim

0.6

Other/Unspecified

2.5

Unaffiliated

12.1

No specific religion

4

(Source: CIA)

Birth and death rate

In 2010, the birth rate was reported at 13.8 births per 1,000 of population, whereas the death rate was 8.38. Heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, accidental injuries and diabetes are the major reasons for death. The country ranks 151st and 91st in birth and death rates, respectively.

(Source: CIA)

Infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate was 6.14 per 1,000 live births in 2010, against that of 6.87 per 1,000 live births in 2005. Higher mortality rate was seen in male infants, or 6.81 per 1,000 live births, whereas, it was 5.44 in case of female infants. Furthermore, the mortality rate was highest in the case of Non-Hispanic, Alaska Native and Puerto Rican females.

(Source: CIA)

Life expectancy

In 2010, life expectancy was 75.8 years for males and 80.8 for females, showing an increase of 8.7 years and 6.1 years for males and females, respectively, from 1970.

(Source: CIA)

 

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Year

Male

Female

2000

74.1

79.3

2005

74.9

79.9

2010

75.8

80.8

 

(Source: CIA)

Human development index (HDI)

The US is ranked 4th on HDI based on factors like health, education, income, inequality, poverty, and gender, as prepared by the United Nations Development Programme.


(Source: HDR UNDP)

[Top] Soft Infrastructure

Education

As of 2009, the total enrollment in elementary and secondary schools was 62.8 million, and in post-secondary institutions it was 22.4 million. Furthermore, the United States employed 4.7 million teachers and faculties in that year.

 

Education attainment of people over 25 years of age (%)

Year

Less than 5 years of elementary school

High school or higher

Bachelor/higher degree

2000

1.6

84.1

25.6

2001

1.6

84.3

26.1

2002

1.6

84.1

26.7

2003

1.6

84.6

27.2

2004

1.5

85.2

27.7

2005

1.6

85.2

27.6

2006

1.5

85.5

28.0

2007

1.5

85.7

28.7

2008

1.3

86.6

29.4

2009

1.4

86.7

29.5

(Source: NCES,)

Healthcare

expenditure on healthcare amounted to USD 2,486,293 million in 2009, increasing by 3.97% over the previous year. Main reasons for this increase were economic inflation, medical inflation and an increase in the overall population.

Health facilities as of 2009

Facility

Number

Hospitals

6,172

Hospital beds

926,000

Skilled nursing facilities

15,071

Home health agencies

10,184

Rural health clinics

3,752

Ambulatory surgical centers

5,260

Hospices

3,405

(Source: CMS)

[Top] Hard Infrastructure

Transport

In 2008, the United States reported total highway length of 4,042,778 miles, indicating 10,652 miles of new road over the previous year. Besides a large rail network of Class I and Amtrak, the US also has an infrastructure for transit rails, which includes 7,261 miles of commuter rail, 1,623 miles of heavy rail and 1,397 miles of light rail. 

 

Transport infrastructure during 2000-2008 (miles)

Year

Highway

Rail network

Navigable

waterways

Pipeline

Class I

Amtrak

Hazardous

liquid

Gas

2000

3,936,222

99,250

23,000

26,000

176,996

1,377,320

2001

3,948,335

97,817

23,000

26,000

158,248

1,413,555

2002

3,966,485

100,125

23,000

26,000

160,990

1,462,579

2003

3,974,107

99,126

22,675

26,000

159,889

1,432,144

2004

3,981,512

97,662

22,256

26,000

163,474

1,484,813

2005

3,995,635

95,664

22,007

26,000

162,832

1,484,373

2006

4,016,741

94,801

21,708

26,000

162,699

1,503,758

2007

4,032,126

94,313

21,708

25,320

166,972

1,523,004

2008

4,042,778

94,082

21,708

25,320

169,422

1,530,012

(Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics)

Ports

There are around 360 commercially-operated ports, out of which, 149 are public-owned ports.

The following table shows the top 30 ports according to the total trade (in tonnes of cargo volume):

 

Rank

Port/State

Tonnes

1

South Louisiana, LA

212,580,811

2

Houston, TX

211,340,972

3

New York/New Jersey

144,689,593

4

Long Beach, CA

72,500,221

5

Corpus Christi, TX

68,239,968

6

New Orleans, LA

68,126,087

7

Beaumont, TX

67,715,469

8

Huntington - Tristate

59,171,545

9

Los Angeles, CA

58,406,060

10

Hampton Roads (VA)

58,369,087

11

Texas City, TX

52,632,461

12

Lake Charles, LA

52,252,099

13

Mobile, AL

52,219,034

14

Baton Rouge, LA

51,917,597

15

Plaquemines, LA

50,869,280

16

Pascagoula, MS

36,617,585

17

Tampa, FL

34,888,052

18

Valdez, AK

34,473,090

19

Port Arthur, TX

33,804,199

20

Pittsburgh, PA

32,891,355

21

Savannah, GA

32,338,995

22

Philadelphia, PA

31,750,604

23

St. Louis, MO and IL

31,336,831

24

Paulsboro, NJ

30,258,416

25

Duluth/Superior, MN/WI

30,226,449

26

Baltimore, MD

30,136,169

27

Freeport, TX

27,362,765

28

Richmond, CA

25,362,626

29

Seattle, WA

24,607,832

30

Marcus Hook, PA

24,568,869

(Source: American Association of Port Authorities)

Airports

In 2008, there were 19,930 airports, of which 560 are certificated. These include civil and jointly used airports, or civil-military airports, heliports, short takeoff and landing (STOL) ports and seaplane bases. 5,202 airports are open for public use whereas, 14,451 airports were reserved for private purpose.

 

The following table shows the top 10 international airports according to the number of passengers in 2009:

 

Rank

Airport

Total passengers

1

New York, NY (J.F. Kennedy)

10,703,228

2

Miami, FL

7,710,103

3

Los Angeles, CA

7,283,088

4

Newark, NJ

5,295,252

5

Chicago, IL (O'Hare)

5,068,106

6

Atlanta, GA

4,325,458

7

San Francisco, CA

3,946,152

8

Houston, TX (Bush)

3,811,278

9

Washington, DC (Dulles)

2,934,267

10

Dallas/Ft.Worth, TX

2,310,286

 

In domestic air travel, Atlanta (GA) airport ranks 1st with a total 37,812,901 passengers during 2009.

(Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics)

Telecommunications

As on March 2010, out of the total 118.3 million households, about 96% had a telephone connection.

 

Annual changes in household telephone connections (March-to-March)

Year

Households with telephone connection (millions)

Households without telephone connection (millions)

2001

101.1

5.8

2002

103.4

4.8

2003

107.1

5.0

2004

106.4

6.5

2005

105.8

8.7

2006

107.2

8.4

2007

110.8

6.4

2008

112.2

5.6

2009

113.2

5.2

2010

113.6

4.7

Total wireless mobile subscribers at the end of 2008 were 270.33 million, growing at about 12.01% between 2000 and 2008.

In December 2009, there were a total of 80.66 million fixed broadband subscribers, and 52.49 million mobile wireless broadband subscribers.


(Source: FCC)

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