Credit ratings agencies have endured criticism for failing to anticipate sovereign risk in the wake of the global crisis. A poor track record raises questions about their usefulness as a predictor of changing risk perceptions. Evidence suggests that subjective assessments by country experts based on a broad set of factors are more useful in quantifying risk trends.

The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey show that the Baltic States continue to climb the ECR global rankings. Estonia’s risk outlook has improved significantly since the global financial crisis, with the country now considered the safest in CEE.

Political instability and deteriorating labour-market conditions were among factors that played into analysts’ heightened perceptions of South Africa’s risk outlook in Euromoney’s Country Risk survey, before the violence at Marikana and the rating agency downgrades.

Two experts give their views on the implications of another round of Chávismo on Latin America’s biggest oil producer

Iran’s overall ECR score fell by 2.6 points since Q1 2012 to 24.2 in Q3 2012, resulting in a four-place fall on ECR’s global rankings to 143.

Some of the world’s emerging powerhouses have seen their scores rise in Q3 2012, and China has now lost its safest-Brics status.

Spain and Slovenia on the verge of a bailout; cohesiveness still at stake, according to Euromoney Country Risk Q3 2012 results.

The slowing of China’s growth miracle, coupled with concerns over leadership transition, has caused the world’s most populous nation to lose its status as the safest of the Brics, in the latest results of Euromoney’s country risk rankings. Elsewhere, Japan, once the world’s safest sovereign, has now fallen to its lowest level, and Spain plunged 14 places with a sovereign bailout now seemingly inevitable.

G10 has become riskier during the third quarter; Sweden is safer, according to Euromoney Country Risk Q3 results.

Eleven of the 18 sovereigns in Central and Eastern Europe became riskier in Q3 2012; notable exceptions are the Baltic climbers.

Iran, Yemen and Syria are the most concerning; without those, the region is safer than Brics, Euromoney Country Risk Q3 results.

Country risk increased across the G10 and some of the other main regions of the world in Q3 2012, according to the survey. North America, the eurozone, and Central and Eastern Europe are among those areas where risk perceptions have increased the most.

Although resilient to the increased risks elsewhere, some of Latin America’s lowest scoring sovereigns have been downgraded the most, according to Euromoney Country Risk Q3 results.

The region’s high risks are still evident - despite the attractions of recent bond issues - according to Euromoney Country Risk Q3 results.

Eleven of Asia’s 27 sovereigns see risks ease in Q3, but eight are perceived to be more risky, according to Euromoney Country Risk Q3 results.

The sorry state of the Vietnamese banking sector contrasts with elsewhere in the region.

India’s new market reforms and privatization drive have started a debate about whether Asia’s third-largest economy is poised for a rebound.