Hungary’s fiscal problems are more acute than the rest of the region. Far from stabilizing, Hungary’s ECR score plumbed new depths during Q1 2013, falling to 46.6, and sending the tier-four sovereign a further five places downwards in the rankings to 73rd, just one step and less than one point better off than Romania.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland are comfortable tier-two sovereigns.
Issuance reflects the scramble for African sovereign bonds and country’s growing economic allure.
While Hungary’s fortunes continue to slide, neighbouring Romania, a fellow tier-four sovereign, fell three places in the rankings to 74th during Q1 2013, its lowest position.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland are well-buttressed against contagion from the eurozone crisis, according to the latest quarterly update from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.
Surprisingly, Slovenia registered a slightly higher score in Q1 2013, but beware: this was mostly due to quantitative survey factors.
Brazil’s position in the ECR global rankings remains unchanged this quarter as analysts digest the impact of policy-rate hikes on economic growth.
Mexico is now safer than Colombia, according to Euromoney Country Risk data, as structural reforms gather pace.
Jordan’s risks remain high. Rated Ba1 by Moody’s and BB by S&P, but on negative watch, the country scores less than 50 out of 100 and is firmly within ECR’s tier four.
The slowing of China’s growth miracle in Q1 2013, coupled with concerns over leadership transitions and credit-fuelled growth, had a negative impact on country risk scores for Asia’s top-tier sovereigns in Q1 2013.
Slower-than-expected growth and enduring bank-stability issues continue to weigh on China’s risk outlook, according to ECR analysts.
Morocco is some nine points and 21 places higher than Lebanon on a score of 47.2 points, though also a tier-four sovereign.
Economists’ perceptions of sovereign risk deteriorated again for many parts of Middle East and North Africa during Q1 2013, according to Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.
Morocco is still riskier than Israel, of course, which scores 64.3 points – almost 10 more than Bahrain, the next safest MENA sovereign, which is still ranking some 15 places above Morocco.
The Gulf remains the safest bloc in the MENA region.
Taiwan’s economy gathered momentum this quarter, with the economy growing by 3.8% in Q1 from 0.7 in Q3-2012. The country’s economic rebound had a positive bearing on Taiwan’s ECR score, which improved by 1.2 points to 74.9.
Election outcome will determine extent and composition of fiscal reform, say analysts
Nigeria outperformed sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) main bond issuers in Q1 2013, overtaking Angola and Gabon in the global risk rankings – but structural reform gridlock remains an issue.
Qatar and Kuwait edge closer into ECR’s tier one; Oman and UAE overtake Saudi Arabia.
Improving scores for the majority of countries confirms the region’s appeal, despite country risk experts losing faith in Argentina and Venezuela.
Neither CEE nor the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) appear to offer more favourable diversification options as their risks increase due to slower trade, weak capital flows and political problems.
Five of the 11 G10 countries became safer in Q1, but six European countries got riskier.
Geopolitical concerns still imparting negative effects on the region, where oil and gas producers are also monitoring global growth situation closely.
While some of Asia’s 27 sovereigns have enjoyed better fortunes in the risk stakes since December, many others have seen their scores decline.
While a handful of euro-using nations became safer during Q1 2013, many either stabilized on low scores or saw their risks accentuate, including Cyprus.
With Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey showing improved assessments for much of the Americas and Japan during Q1 2013, it is tempting to believe that the increased global risks seen in recent years are finally abating.