Brazil is a riskier portfolio option than Mexico, according to live data from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, but the data suggest the risk differential is smaller than is currently priced into the credit default swap market.

Victory for the ruling party’s presidential candidate might presage a more orthodox policy line tailored by an IMF programme, but the sovereign’s macro problems remain a concern given the risk of the election result being overturned.

Risk experts had been losing faith in Thailand before its political problems resurfaced.