From Estonia to Belarus, many sovereigns have been caught up in a crisis their credit ratings fail to reflect.

The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets (EMs) becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is the world’s riskiest sovereign, according to a new model developed to calculate default probabilities, ahead of other high-risk countries such as Belarus, Ukraine and Rwanda.