Country risk experts consider UK riskier than eurozone AAA sovereigns

The UK was not among the European sovereigns placed on negative watch by Standard and Poor’s in the its controversial move earlier this week, but economists believe the outlook for the UK’s economy is no better than the core EMU-member states directly affected by the eurozone crisis. In Euromoney Country Risk’s (ECR) rankings, all six of the eurozone’s AAA sovereigns retain a higher score than the UK, despite the damaging effects of the eurozone crisis on the economies of France, Germany, Austria, Luxembourg, Finland and the Netherlands. Economists participating in ECR’s live indicator of country risk awarded the UK lower scores than its eurozone counterparts across a range of political, economic and structural criteria. Although scores for each of Europe’s AAA sovereigns have deteriorated steeply since 2008, the UK’s country risk score has fallen further and faster than the rest, with a total decline of 10.6 points since September 2008. Luxembourg (-10.1) and France (-9.5) have recorded the next largest deteriorations. In the survey, in which live scores are constantly being updated, experts awarded the UK lower scores than the six eurozone AAA sovereigns in the survey sections for economic outlook, monetary policy/currency stability, government finances and employment. The UK also received a lower score for bank stability (6.6 out of 10) than any of the eurozone’s AAA sovereigns.

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