Economists see increasing risk in the G10 in the last six months, but at a slower rate than in 1H 2011.
The latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reveal that seven G10 member states – comprising 11 countries in all – have been downgraded by ECR contributors, resulting in an average score shift of -0.8 points out of 100.
Six countries – Italy, France, the Netherlands, Japan, UK and Germany – have seen declines in all three main categories of risk (economic, political and structural). However, with the notable exceptions of Italy, France and the Netherlands, G10 countries have either improved their rankings or are unchanged, in ECR’s universe of 186 countries.
Switzerland is still regarded as the safest G10 country, climbing one place to second in the rankings – just behind Norway, the safest country of all. Sweden has jumped two places to fifth and Canada by the same margin to seventh.
The UK saw the largest deterioration in its economic risk assessment of all the G10 countries – down 3.1 points – but remains at 18th globally, supported by its strong score in the survey’s six political indicators. Economists marked the UK down in the survey indicators for economic outlook, employment/unemployment and bank stability – the latter preceding the Libor debacle that has recently come to light.