login
Euromoney CountryRisk logo
  • Global Risk Table
  • Countries
  • Analysis
  • About Us
    • About ECR
    • Methodology
    • FAQS
    • Become an Expert
  • Contact Us

GDP figures merely endorse UK’s ranking

Jeremy Weltman Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Dismal GDP growth figures from the UK provide further evidence of its riskiness, corroborating figures from Euromoney Country Risk.

Today’s news that the UK economy shrank in Q2 2012 by 0.7% quarter on quarter (and 0.8% year on year), marking a third consecutive quarterly decline, provides a gloomy backdrop for Conservative chancellor (finance minister) George Osborne’s deficit-reduction plans. However, it does not alter the fact that the sovereign was already regarded as a riskier bet than several of its European partners (European sovereigns still among safest), according to ECR’s Country Risk Survey.



The UK’s score has fallen by one point since January, one of seven G10 countries to be downgraded (Euromoney Country Risk Q2 2012 Results: Global risk ratchets up in 1H 2012), with a gloomier economic message already factored in by ECR contributors; in fact all 15 surveyed indicators for the UK have been downgraded in H1 2012. Unsurprisingly, the bank stability, economic-GNP outlook and employment/unemployment sub-factors are among those that have been downwardly revised the most.

According to Fraser Coutts, an Independent economic consultant, and one of ECR’s UK contributors, the GDP figures “put more pressure on the government and could lead to a triple-dip scenario after an Olympics-driven boost in Q3”.

“The deficit continues to be blown off course, particularly as the government hasn’t really got on with cutting public spending”. And there is a “greater risk of the coalition fracturing”, which is reflected in the UK’s government stability indicator scoring 7.5 (out of 10), down by 0.2 since January. It is the lowest-scoring of all six UK political risk factors, and is lower than the Dutch government stability assessment.

Yet the UK, on an overall score of 72.2, is firmly fixed in 18th place in ECR’s global rankings, below some of Europe’s safest sovereigns perhaps, but still considered a safer bet than France, which has fallen two places to 19th.

This article was originally published by Euromoney Country Risk.

Recent articles

  • ECR survey results Q3 2022: Political risk is heightened by conflict, inflation and tightening financial conditions

  • ECR survey results Q2 2022: Covid, war and stagflation risks perplex investors

  • ECR survey results Q4 2021: EMs on back-foot as the year ends

  • ECR survey results Q3 2021: CEE shines but Brazil, Nigeria and other EMs recoil from global investing roadblocks

Euromoney CountryRisk logo

The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our  Terms & Conditions ,  Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site.


All material is subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. Euromoney Country Risk is part of the Delinian Group Delinian Limited 8 Bouverie Street London EC4Y 8AX Registered in England and Wales, Company number 00954730 Copyright © Delinian Limited and its affiliated companies 2023

  • Methodology
  • FAQs
  • Articles
  • Contact us
  • Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement