Is Morocco a serious challenger to Israel? – MENA Q2 results
Israel’s score has shown tremendous volatility so far this year, and has slipped four places in the rankings to 33rd, yet overall several of its key indicators have risen.
Moreover, even though government stability is always a key weakness in the Jewish state – renowned for its healthy democracy, but also its fractious coalition-building – the sovereign has a solid record of government payments and capital repatriation. Plus, it remains the safest option on the Mediterranean cusp, on a score of 63.0, the only single-A rated credit in that area.
However, Morocco is catching up. The sovereign has decoupled from other North African sovereigns, and with better capital access it has seen a 1.3 point rise in its score this year to 47.1, and to within less than three points of tier-three status with a three-place rise in the rankings to 71st.
The country provides a useful portfolio alternative to many similar developing countries in CEE, including Romania (74th), Serbia (93rd), Montenegro (130th) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (156th), all with higher risk profiles.
Still, the fact Morocco has fallen short of the tier-three accolade demonstrates niggling doubts about its economic and political outlook.
Indeed, this was underlined in July when the country saw one of the coalition partners withdraw from the Islamist government after a disagreement over economic policy, including a 20% reduction in subsidies on basic goods that was considered necessary to reduce the budget deficit and a condition for receiving credit from the IMF.
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