ECR Survey Results Q3 2013: Tail risks continue to undermine investor returns

Some 101 of the 186 countries surveyed have succumbed to lower Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) scores (increased risk) since June, which, with 17 unchanged, leaves just 68 safer, according to the views of global economists and other country-risk experts surveyed during the third quarter.

Weighing down the scores is a range of worries, from the US federal shutdown and looming debt-ceiling deadline to monetary tapering and Europe’s fiscal problems.

The picture changes on a year-on-year basis, with the balance still tilting in favour of higher scores than lower ones. However, the shake-out that occurred in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 has still left the majority of sovereigns – some 75% in all – with vastly increased risk levels than before the crisis; in the case of the eurozone periphery - Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain – an astonishing 25 to 50 points each.

Countries affected by the Arab Spring and other instabilities – perhaps threatened by emerging markets’ risk aversion, or interconnected to Europe’s weaknesses via trade and capital flows – have seen their scores downgraded even further in Q3.

The US political problems slowing growth and risking a payments default have not only weakened the US score but also undermined countries susceptible to capital outflow with large budget and current-account imbalances.

India, with its growing debt problems, political resistance to reforms and weakened economy, is one, along with Indonesia and Ukraine. Other parts of Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean are also causing anxiety, with many investor hot-spots seeing their political, economic and/or structural outlooks reassessed along with access to capital.

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