The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) provides aggregated data for BRI countries and regions across time. The aggregated values reflect the positive and negative trends in investment climate and GDP since Q4 2013.
|Quarterly Result||Historical Data||Methodology||Result Index|
The graphs and tables for Q3 analyse movement over the past four quarters. Although the EBRI aggregated value is slightly lower in Q3 2018 (110.09) compared to Q2 2018 (110.12) in general, the value in 2018 is higher than its 2017 level by at least 7 points. This suggests that investment from the Belt and Road initiative may have improved IC and/or GDP among the BRI region between 2017 and 2018.
For the Q2 2018 analysis we focused on year-on-year movement over the past five years. The Q2 findings indicated a negative trend for the Middle East and Central and Easter Europe which both presented a decline compared to Q4 2013.
However, for Q3 2018 (graph above) we focus instead on a quarter-on-quarter analysis. All individual BRI regions have actually exhibited positive trends in different degrees. Asia shows significant progression, at more than 13 points since Q3 2017. Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East have each increased around two points.
Africa is a key BRI region for the Chinese government. In general, Africa shows a positive trend from its aggregated value over the past four quarters. These changes are particularly prominent between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, and again between Q3 and Q4 2018. All individual BRI countries in Africa show a positive trend toward their single country values between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018. Ethiopia experienced particularly significant growth, from 205.43 to 222.27. However this trend was reversed between Q2 and Q3 2018 when Ethiopia's score dropped sharply from 222.27 to 198.8, whereas the majority of BRI countries in Africa remained stable. The big drop was caused by a relatively unstable politico-economic condition in Ethiopia. This can be examined by its investment climate value. Ethiopia experienced 12.5% and 13.2% drops in its economic and political scores respectively.
The aggregated value graph for Asia shows a significant growth between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018. When looking at EBRI single country values, all BRI countries in Asiapresented progressive movements in these two quarters. In particular, Laos, Bangladesh, Myanmar, the Philippines, Cambodia, Turkmenistan, Bhutan, India, Vietnam and Nepal increased their country values by more than 10 points during this period. Brunei and Pakistan experience a more conservative increase - around 0.15 points.
Compared to other regions, CEE has received the lowest EBRI aggregated value over the past four quarters. Having said that, more than 70% of BRI countries from CEE are categorised as tier 3 or tier 2 (tiers at the upper end of the investment climate scale).
These countries include Romania, Albania, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Montenegro, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Georgia, Macedonia, Slovak Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyz Republic and Croatia.
Although Russia and Ukraine are categorised as tier 5 countries, over the past four quarters their EBRI single country values have been growing steadily. This indicates that both their GDP and investment climate are gradually recovering, although they are still not as strong as in Q4 2013.
Although the Middle East’s aggregated value dropped dramatically between Q4 2013 and Q3 2017, its value has been steadily growing since Q3 2017. In particular, the majority of BRI countries in the Middle East, such as Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait have been experiencing subtle but stable growth in their EBRI single country value.
Iran and Yemen’s EBRI country values, on the other hand, have remained low over the past four quarters. Also Yemen along with Kuwait are classified as tier 5 countries. These could be considered as key contributing factors towards the region's low aggregated value.