Euromoney Belt and Road Index: Q1 2019 Graphs and trends Y/Y

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The aggregated values reflect the positive and negative trends in investment climate and GDP since Q4 2013.

Euromoney Belt and Road Index Aggregated Value

The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) shows the movement of investment climates (IC) and GDP among 69 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. The EBRI aggregated value demonstrates a generic politico-economic condition among the BRI region. The value is published quarterly and aims to provide readers with a credible reference of politico-economic changes among BRI countries since the initiative's inception in 2013.

When comparing the aggregate values of the same quarters each year, we see a clear upward trend. The aggregated value has increased by more than 11 points between Q1 2018 and Q1 2019 that demonstrates the biggest improvement since Q4 2013. The trend suggests a strengthening GDP and/or investment climate in the BRI region since Q4 2013.

Euromoney Belt and Road Index Aggregated Value by Regions

Although the EBRI aggregated value exhibits a positive trend overall, individual regions demonstrate different levels of growth and decline over the past four quarters. Asia shows the biggest improvement in its aggregated value, whereas Central and Eastern Europe performs the most negatively since the initiative's inception in 2013. It is worth to note that this quarter Middle East’s aggregated value exceeds Africa’s value and for the first time its GDP and/or investment climate grows positively since Q4 2013.

EBRI Aggregated Value Graphs for Individual Region

Africa           Asia       Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)        Middle East

Africa

There are five countries in the BRI region. The aggregated value in Africa this quarter shows a significant downward trend, almost 10 points decreased comparing to the same quarter in 2018. A big drop of EBRI country value in Egypt and South Africa may explain this downward trend. 

Asia

There are twenty-six Asian countries in the BRI region. Compared to other regions Asia is stable, the most significant progression in its aggregated value over the past five years is from 129.02 to 191.04. In addition, Asia’s aggregated value this quarter increased 15% comparing to its value in Q1 2018. This can be reflected by individual country’s EBRI value in Asia. For example, EBRI country value in Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Cambodia and Vietnam have increased by 15% - 20% comparing to the same quarter in 2018.  

CEE

There are twenty-four Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the BRI region. Aggregated value in the CEE region initially showed significant decline since the initiative’s inception in Q4 2013. There is no significant change in its aggregated value between Q1 2018 and Q1 2019, the values are around 50 points.

Middle East

There are thirteen Middle Eastern countries in the BRI region. The aggregated value in this quarter has progressed significantly increasing from 86.04 to 102.24 points, comparing to its value in Q1 2018. It is worth to note that Middle East’s aggregated value this quarter first time exceeds the baseline (100 points) of EBRI value. This means the performance of GDP or/and country risk in Middle East is initially better than the performance in the initiative’s inception in Q4 2013. The progression also can be seen in EBRI country value in the individual country in Middle East. Apart from Jordan, the EBRI country values in Middle East perform in an upward trend.