The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.
The Q3 Belt & Road Index results indicate there are 52 countries with values larger than 100, comprising the first three (of five) categories, or tiers, that have seen rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since the EBRI’s inception.
Top-placed Ethiopia, plus the Maldives and Nepal have shown substantial improvement in Q3. They are among five countries - along with Laos and Bangladesh – presently in tier-1 revealing the most improvement of all.
All five countries are among the fastest growing worldwide in recent years, with favourable short-term economic outlooks despite prevailing global trade risks.
In total, 68 countries are categorised according to improvements (or otherwise) in their investor climates and/or GDP since China’s Belt & Road Initiative was inaugurated in 2013; only Syria remains excluded due to the lack of data.
Other countries rising through the rankings since the second quarter are Serbia, the United Arab Emirates, Madagascar and Tajikistan. All four countries have for the first time achieved index values of 100 or more, indicating improvement thanks to upgrades to a range of pro-investor political and economic risk factors, and higher GDP.
Tajikistan is one of the most improved countries as far as its business regulatory environment is concerned.
By contrast, Turkey and Belarus have plunged from tier-4 to tier-5 (the lowest category), reflecting weak economies and policymaking uncertainties.
As far as regions are concerned, all four are showing lower index values since Q2. Asia and the Middle East are nevertheless still showing substantial improvement measured year-on-year, whereas Africa and Central and Eastern Europe are both marked down.
For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – also known as One Belt and One Road – is a development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013. BRI is an infrastructure and trade project intended to connect China – financially and structurally – to various economic entities across Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania.
In response to the growing demand for information on the impact of this initiative, we have launched the Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI). This index provides investors and other market participants with valuable data to evaluate investment opportunities and to track changes in investment climate and GDP in the Belt and Road region. EBRI publishes new results each quarter, providing data on 68 countries from Q4 2013 to present.