The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.
The latest results of the Belt and Road Index reveal that 25 of the 68 countries have values higher than the previous quarter, with 38 lower and the remainder unchanged.
The number of countries with index values larger than 100 has remained unchanged at 50.
Countries with scores of 100 or more are included in the top three (of five) categories, or tiers, showing rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since China’s Belt and Road Initiative was inaugurated in 2013.
Albania and Uzbekistan have both moved from tier-4 back into tier-3, while Tajikistan has slipped from tier-1 to become the highest tier-2 country.
Tier-1 now comprises the Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Laos and Cambodia, all with scores above 200 showing the most improved growth rates and/or investor risk climates.
Tier-5 countries, showing the worst performance, are Iraq, Russia, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Lebanon, Turkey and Yemen.
Asia is still the only world region showing improvement overall, with a value comfortably exceeding 100, although its index value fell to 167.99 in the fourth quarter, from 171.25 in Q3. Africa’s score also declined, to 97.85 from 98.99, but the Middle East increased slightly to 95.74 from 95.59.
The score for central and eastern Europe (which also incorporates central Asian Republics) is only 46.72 and it worsened in Q4 due to the pandemic, with, most notably, Bulgaria and also Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary showing the largest falls.
For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below: