The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.
The latest results of the Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) reveal that 47 of the 68 countries have higher values since the previous quarter, and 21 are lower, as economies recover from the pandemic.
Despite this, the number of countries with index values larger than 100 has remained unchanged at 50, with two countries moving above 100 (Croatia and Indonesia) and two falling below (Sri Lanka and United Arab Emirates).
Countries with scores of 100 or more are included in the top three (of five) categories, or tiers, showing rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since China’s Belt and Road Initiative was inaugurated in 2013.
Tajikistan has re-joined tier 1 and Vietnam has moved into the top tier for the first time.
Tier 1 also includes the Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Cambodia and Laos. These countries have scores above 200, showing the most improved growth rates and/or investor risk climates of all.
The vast majority of the best-performing countries are in Asia, which is still the only world region showing improvement overall, with its index value comfortably exceeding 100, despite a small drop to 161.54 in Q1 2021.
Africa’s index value has increased to 99.56 and it is close to showing overall improvement again (above 100) for the first time since Q4 2018. By contrast, the Middle East has fallen from 95.74 in Q4 2020 to 90.31 in Q1 2021 and Central and Eastern Europe (incorporating Central Asian Republics) is still lagging despite rising from 46.72 to 50.02.
Serbia, Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania, the Philippines, Macedonia (FYR) and the Czech Republic have all moved up from tier 3 to tier 2. Russia is up from tier 5 to tier 4.
Tier-5 countries, showing the worst performance and with their index values all sliding in Q1 2021, are Azerbaijan, Kuwait (down from tier 4), Brunei, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Yemen.
For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below:
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