The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.
The latest results of the Belt and Road Index reveal that 37 of the 68 countries have higher values than the previous quarter and 31 are lower, as values for GDP continue to recover, along with some of the economic and political risk ratings associated with the business climate and infrastructure projects. This occurred in a year in which there were fewer pandemic restrictions compared with the full lockdowns employed in 2020.
The number of countries with index values larger than 100 has fallen from 50 to 49, with Indonesia sliding below this level for the first time in a year. Countries with scores of 100 or more are included in the top three (of five) categories, or tiers, showing rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was inaugurated in 2013.
The Q4 survey is notable for rising Asia and Middle East regional index values, to 161.2 and 94.6 respectively. The Africa index declined, but it remained just above the critical 100 mark, while the central and eastern Europe index fell marginally to 50.3.
Turkmenistan has become the latest country to join tier-1 with a score above 200 – showing the most improved growth rates and/or investor risk climates since the BRI was launched nine years ago. Others in the top tier include the Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Laos.
Armenia and Croatia have both moved from tier-3 to tier-2 this quarter, with Indonesia sliding from tier-3 to tier-4. Afghanistan has fallen from tier-4 to tier-5 since the Taliban takeover. It joins Kuwait, Iraq, Brunei, Turkey, Lebanon and Yemen as the worst performers.
For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below: