The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.
The latest results of the Belt & Road Index reveal that 39 of the 68 countries have lower values either on account of their GDP declining or owing to the worsening of some of the economic and political risk ratings associated with their business climates and infrastructure projects.
The 10 largest fallers relative to the previous quarter are Pakistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Ukraine, Madagascar, Russia, Thailand, Nepal, Bulgaria and FYR Macedonia.
The survey is notable for worsening regional index values for Asia, Africa and Central and Eastern Europe, but the Middle East score has improved again on the back of better prospects for oil producers.
The Asia score remains far higher than for any other world region and the number of countries with index values larger than 100 is 52.
Countries with scores of 100 or more are included in the top three (of five) categories, or tiers, showing rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since China’s Belt & Road Initiative was inaugurated in 2013.
A total of 27 countries have higher values since the previous quarter, led by large increases for Turkmenistan (featured previously), plus Moldova and Mongolia.
Moldova has climbed into tier 1 for the first time, joining highest-rated country the Maldives, plus Bangladesh, Nepal, Turkmenistan, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Laos.
They are countries with scores above 200, showing the most improved growth rates and/or investor risk climates since the BRI began.
The only other changes involve Myanmar falling into tier 4 (from tier 3) and war-torn Ukraine from tier 4 to tier 5, alongside Belarus, Russia, Turkey, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Yemen all propping up the rankings with the lowest index values.
For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below: